El eyecatching consiste en "anotar" en nuestra libreta aquellos caballos que nos hayan llamado la atención. Normalmente se trata de caballos que, aún no habiendo ganado, apreciamos en ellos algún factor que los excusa o intuimos que en otras nuevas circunstancias pueden mejorar esa performance que no fue del todo buena. Ejemplo de factores:
-A la hora de esprintar el caballo no tiene el espacio suficiente y pierde "el momento" adecuado para lanzar el ataque final.
-El caballo sale mal, tiene que adelantar toda la carrera, y no le quedan fuerzas para el sprint.
-El lote se divide en dos pelotones de caballos: unos corren en el lado más alejado respecto al espectador (far side) y otros en el más cercano (near side). Puede ser que un caballo que queda "sólo" 6º haya sido el 1º de su grupo. Esto nos indica que está en forma y que, de haber competido en el lado favorable, hubiera podido encontrar un mejor ritmo de carrera.
-Los caballos suelen correr muy a gusto cuando lo hace al lado de la verja. Además si el hipódromo tiene curva, recorren menos terreno. Quizá hay un caballo que corrió bien pero que lo tuvo que hacer demasiado abierto.
-El caballo se asustó por las acometidas del jockey rival.
-El caballo no llevaba ningún tipo de headgear pero en la próxima salida los llevará por primera vez o le será recolocado el atuendo de nuevo. Estos accesorios se colocan porque 1) ayudan al caballo a concentrarse en la carrera; 2) ayudan a controlar los arreones iniciales del caballo que pueden ser claves para que llegue con energia al final. y, finalmente, 3) pueden ayudar a que el caballo, que se muestra reacio a galopar, lo haga.
-La nueva distancia que recorrerá el caballo le será más/menos apropiada. Usain Bolt es bueno en 100 y 200 metro lisos. ¿Pero qué tal si lo ponemos a competir los 10000 metros? Con los caballos pasa lo mismo y los trainers realizan maniobras estratégicas. Por ejemplo, imaginamos un caballo destinado a correr sobre los 10/12 furlongs. Lo hacen debutar en carreras de 5, 6 y 7 furlongs hasta que consigue una posición que le permite al handicapper asignarle un OR. Ha cosechado resultados horribles y su mejor puesto ha sido un 5º sobre 7f y por los pelos. Llega a la carrera sobre 10 furlongs con cuota 33/1 y le saca 5 cuerpos al segundo clasificado. Era un caballo que por pedigree y anatomía estaba corriendo sobre distancias que le eran poco apropiadas.
-...y muchísmimos otros factores que se van viendo en las carreras (corrió bien pero se hundió en los últimos metros, el caballo estaba verde todavía porque era su primera carrera...). La verdad es que hoy en día es difícil ver "cosas" que nadie más haya visto. Está todo muy, muy estudiado, pero de vez en cuando aún es posible sacar valor a estas informaciones.
Una herramienta muy buena para el eyecatching es el servicio Nag Me de Sportinglife, que es gratuito. Te registras, introduces el nombre del caballo y el sistema te envía un correo (o sms si pagas) cuando ese caballo se inscriba en la próxima carrera.
En mi agenda yo ya he anotado estos cuatro nombres:
Taikoo, que en la última carrera, cuando viajaba bien, se queda literalmente sin espacio a la hora de lanzar el ataque final. Sin embargo acaba con buenas sensaciones. Es un ejemplo obvio y vox populi en estos momentos, supongo.
Lisahane Bog que en su última carrera se presenta sin las cheekpieces habituales y, a pesar de salir con un OR muy positivo, se hunde completamente. Es una maniobra muy clara para rebajar el OR aún más de cara a próximos eventos. Yo creo que en la siguiente o posterior este caballo nos da dinero aquí en el blog.
Romantic Queen muy mala salida en la última carrera, remontada y sprint espectacular. Si la carrera se alarga unos metros gana esta yegua seguro.
Royal Exchange vale lo escrito sobre Romantic Queen.
La idea de esta sección es que compartamos nuestro eye-catchers. Para ello, si queréis colaborar, dejad vuestros comentarios en este post. No lo hagáis en el chat pues la información con el tiempo se pierde. Dejad la info en el apartado comentarios.
13 DE OCTUBRE
ResponderEliminarLINGFIELD 3.00
Espectacular progresión en el último furlong de Plutocraft, Silent Oasis y Seasonal Cross.
LINGFIELD 3.35
Viniendo completamente desde atrás Final Verse y Kiss a Prince realizan un último furlong y medio espléndido.
KEMPTON 13 OCTUBRE
ResponderEliminar6.10 SILENCE IS BLISS & MAGIC CROSS; el primero parece hundirse pero resurge en los últimos metros y casi placea; el segundo lanza el ataque a la vez que el ganador (Rosina Grey), aguantandolo durante mucho tiempo y viniendo desde atrás después de una mala salida.
BRIGHTON 14.30
ResponderEliminarHighland Harvest. Buena salida y buen ritmo de carrera, pero le falta hueco a la hora de encarar el último furlong. Cuando arranca, casi alcanza a los primeros pero le faltan 20 metros. Hubiera quedado 1º o 2º si hubiera durado tan sólo unos metros más.
PONTREFACT 17.40 18 OCTUBRE MAGICAL MACEY
ResponderEliminarMALA SALIDA LO QUE LE HACE IR ATRÁS EN TODO MOMENTO. NO OBSTANTE NO VIAJA MAL Y REALIZA UN BUEN ÚLTIMO TRAMO, A PESAR DEL TRÁFICO, adelantando hacia el final. Será un outsider buenísimo puesto que su marca bajará aún más.
19 octubre
ResponderEliminarLingfield 17.00 Scottish Glen
mala salida y corre abierto, no está cómodo en ningún momento pero aún así en los últimos 2f simplemente VUELA, QUEDANDO 3º
21 octubre
ResponderEliminarKempton 8.40
Darcey, encerradísimo y aún así, en mi opinión, el campeón moral a pesar de ni tan siquiera colocar.
21 octubre
ResponderEliminarSlugger O´Toole
kempton 9.10 en la salida se toca con otros caballos y queda relegado a la última posición pese a tener un buen draw. No coloca (Beaten favourite) pero sin embargo se aprecia que sigue en forma.
22 octubre 3.30 Ayr
ResponderEliminarChoc'a'moca
Viaja sólo, sin referencia ninguna, demasiado abierto y, aún así, se acerca hacia el final. Le vendrá bien un salto en distancia. Lod dos primeros vienen muy en forma.
23 octubre
ResponderEliminarDONCASTER 13.55
OUR JONATHAN sin front-runner capaz de marcarle el ritmo realiza un último furlong casi a la altura de Hoof it, el ganador, en una carrera, eso sí, muy lenta dominada por los front-runners ubicados en stolls altos.
26 octubre YARMOUTH
ResponderEliminar1.30 TIDAL viaja bien, no me parece que el jockey le haya exigido demasiado. Peligroso en distancias más largas y terreno más firme.
2.00 AVID KALE Carrera rápida y dura. Si no es por Focal Maith realiza un carrerón. Creo que esta competencia trabajará bien en un futuro, no hay más que ver las distancias entre los caballos y cómo se han hundido los front-runners.
2.30 Raw Spirit y Hawawi. El 1º Monta de Dettori. Backmarker pero viajando bien. El 2º es eyecatcher por lo cómodo que galopa en todo momento. A tener en cuenta. SP 15/2 y 33/1 respectivamente.
RAW SPIRIT la yegua más joven de esta Nursery Maiden. Dato MUY a tener en cuenta. Debe madurar: es de mayo y la mayoría son de enero, febrero y marzo.
ResponderEliminarking supreme
ResponderEliminarlingfield 28 oct 4.10
desde atrás, el jockey lo despereza y realiza un tramo final muy bueno, a la altura de los mejores de la carrera. Muy a tener en cuenta pues bajará aún más su marca, sobretodo si se enfrenta a distancia mayores de 10 f.
walvis bay
ResponderEliminarwolverhampton 29 oct 19.10
sale desde el peor cajón y corre abierto en todo momento gastando mucha energía pues no se puede colocar de líder como quería. Aún así aguanta muy bien en la recta final: empieza 2º y queda relegado a la 5ª plaza por unos escasos metros. Está muy atado por el handicapper pero a tener en cuenta si el draw le es más favorable y la cuota suculenta. Va bien en GF y polytrack.
30 octubre
ResponderEliminartinshu
wolverhampton 8.50
gana por los pelos en una carrera lenta yendo siempre por delante. En la llegada hay seis caballos en un pañuelo. Para la próxima llegará con el OR más alto de su carrera y su victoria de hoy ha sido dando el 100%. Lay al canto.
Leyte Gulf
ResponderEliminarWolverhampton
1 de noviembre de 2010 14.15
Viaja comodísimo pero completamente encerrado, por lo que lanza su ataque más tarde de lo aconsejable.Además, una vez esprinta, otra vez se ve entorpecido. Su 5º puesto es muy meritorio.
3 de noviembre
ResponderEliminarkempton 4.35 ELLEMUJIE
ataca desde atrás, pero le cortan el paso. Iba a ritmo de ser 2º. Bueno para ritmos rápidos.
3 noviembre
ResponderEliminarsensational love
sluggsy morant
sencillamente hay que ver la carrera
4 NOVIEMBRE
ResponderEliminar4.10 LINFIELD
LUNAR RIVER
Esta yegua está por encima del handicapper desde hace ya algunas salidas pero la mala suerte puede con ella por el momento. en esta salida mal draw que le hace estar en cola durante toda la carrera, aguantando demasiado. Viaja perfecta pero se tiene que abrir demasiado. Aún así su arreón final, a pesar de ser 5ª, era a ritmo de llevarse el gato al agua.
kempton 6.30
ResponderEliminar4 noviembre
AVALON BAY desde un cajón malísimo tiene que gastar mucha energía para ponerse en cabeza. Aún así aguanta las arremetidas de los hold up, entrando 5º en meta. Será peligroso con un buen draw con una marca de 61 o menos. Es joven para ser un 2yo pues es de finales de abril. tiempo al tiempo
kempton 7.00
ResponderEliminar4 noviembre
FROMSONG
Caballo viejísimo que es su día corrió Listed races. Igual que Avalon Bay lanza la carrera a tope y aguanta con dignidad el último furlong. Es una claimer pero con una marca de 61 se carga a un 74 con su mismo peso y a 3/1 y a un 80 a cuota 7/1. a tener en cuenta pese a su edad.
kempton 6.30
ResponderEliminar4 noviembre
AJAAFA
Bumped start, in rear, outpaced pero DIOS MÍO qué últimos 2 furlongs. Está por delante del handicapper seguro. Nos lo apuntamos para la próxima.
kempton 4.30
ResponderEliminar4 noviembre
RICHMOND FONTAINE Victoria de mucha clase en una carrera muy rápida. Sólo decir que fue layeado en
carrera a 133!!!!!! Muy por delante del handicapper
WOOP WOOP selección de taylor ese día, se queda atrás y cortado y cuando lanza el ataque final se ve obstaculizado. No hubiera ganado pero si placeado.
RICHMOND FONTAINE Todo lo que sea OR 72/73 hacia abajo será poco menos que un chollo en mi opinión
ResponderEliminar11 de noviembre southwell
ResponderEliminar12.50 Whaston
Jaco que corre actualmente con una marca de 49, la más baja de su carrera. Con el peor cajón corre absolutamente abierto en todo momento. Aún así aguanta muy bien el último furlong. Muy a tener en cuenta.
21 octubre
ResponderEliminarkempton 8.10 Argaum
En una carrera rápida para hold-ups aguanta el tirón cuando había liderado desde el principio. A tener en cuenta
1 DICIEMBRE
ResponderEliminarKEMPTON 2.00
LUCKY DIVA
DEVON DIVA
Kadouchski
Djalalabad
Brooksby
9 DICIEMBRE 7.00
ResponderEliminarDOWER GLEN cajón 1, quiere liderar pero no puede, viaja abierto y desafía un par de veces con energía pero se hunde en el último f.
LEND A GRAND 2a carrera después de 627 días de parón. Viaja en la cola y desafía tarde encontrando problemas de tráfico. No es demoledor pero muy a tener en cuenta.
FORCE TO SPEND ganador moral, esperó demasiado.
LEND A LIGHT!!!!!!!!!! NO LEND A GRAND!!!!!!!!
ResponderEliminarJENNY POTS 14 ENERO 2:30
ResponderEliminarJenny Potts, who looked a bit unlucky at the course last week, again finished well and was actually in second a few strides after the line. She´s clearly in good form and is in need of a stiffer test.
SHEILA'S BOND 14 ENERO 2:30
ResponderEliminarHELD UP, CARRERA LENTA, INSIDE RAIL NO 2M!!!!
17 january wolverhampton 3.20
ResponderEliminarJamie Spencer did everything right aboard Kames Park, a notoriously difficult ride, producing him between rivals in the straight, but the gelding did not go through with his effort. In fairness, though, a stronger pace would have suited better.
cape melody
ResponderEliminardejar pasar una carrera después de parón, buenos ratings on the clock
BUXTON (Lingfield 4.15) shaped as if still right at the top of his game last time, held up in last place off a steady place and his rider taking the unfavoured inside route throughout, yet he made excellent late headway from an impossible situation, despite not challenging in the ideal place, all in all giving the impression he remains an in-form and well handicapped horse. He had won in great style on his previous start, this time making his challenge on the often-favoured wide outside, sweeping home in fine style and making up five or six lengths on eventual third Rubenstar in the final furlong. He would have been a pound better off with Rubenstar (now a non-runner) here following the latter’s two subsequent wins, yet was a much bigger price at opening show, and there are enough prominent racers in the field to suggest he should get the decent pace that suits.
ResponderEliminarThe stable form makes MUQALAD interesting in Wolverhampton’s 7.05. His three previous runs for Bryan Smart came in the space of three weeks in October/November last year, at a time when the yard was not having winners — Smart was in the middle of a cold run at the time that reached 54 runners without a win, with 45 of the 54 finishing unplaced, and even the mighty Dubai Hills was beaten off a mark of 65 around that time, albeit over 6f. That record contrasts sharply with Smart’s recent record — nine of his last 21 runners have run, and these winners haven’t been horses with easy tasks in maidens — eight of the winners (from 18 runners) came in handicaps, and although four of those wins came from the aforementioned Dubai Hills, there’s no doubt the stable is in rattling good form at present. Muqalad needs to find plenty of improvement on those three previous runs, but he did travel well to the home turn before finding little here on his most recent start and he’s worth chancing in a weak-looking race given the yard’s current form.
The horses I was most interested in today were due to run at Haydock, but at Ascot, I'm starting to wonder whether the betting market isn't over-reacting to some of the trainer comments regarding the big 2m3f handicap hurdle (2.55). Paul Nicholls has suggested he's rather in the dark about SIRE COLLONGES, and the market so far has mirrored many of the varied trainers' comments in the press this morning, with some of those receiving apparently positive mentions being well backed and Sire Collonges notably weak. He almost certainly hasn't been doing much at home, then, but perhaps that's not surprising as he looked a stayer when winning in France, given a largely hands-and-heels ride but stretching away in impressive style in the closing stages. It's possible that the recent stable form has contributed to the drift too, but plenty of the stable's horses have been running well, and given he's one of only a small number of horses that could be very well handicapped in the race, he's drifted to a price that's starting to look too big to ignore.
ResponderEliminarNicholls also looks to have a solid chance at Wincanton with PROMISING ANSHAN (2.10). Nicholls has had him for only two starts (formerly with Charlie Mann), and having reportedly had a wind operation shortly after joining the yard, he has already shown much-improved form for his new yard. Those two efforts came at Newbury in well-contested events that are working out well; on the first occasion, he pulled well clear with Major Malarkey, who would have run in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock today, and Ikorodu Road, who was leading when falling at the last in the fog-shrouded race in which Promising Anshans finished fourth. What we could see from the Newbury race suggests that the drop in trip probably didn't suit Promising Anshan, ridden along vigorously when the field came into view leaving the back straight, and on his previous run at Newbury he had tended to jump slightly right-handed, so the extended 3m1f trip round a right-handed track such as Wincanton could prove ideal. The third from his latest Newbury run franked the form next time when chasing home handicap snip Sona Sasta, well clear of the third, on his next start, and Promising Anshan might still be a well handicapped horse off a mark of 126.
FINAL RHAPSODY
ResponderEliminar3ª LA ÚNICA QUE VIENE DESDE ATRÁS, COMO UNA EXHALACIÓN Y CON PROBLEMAS AL INICIAR EL ATAQUE 2 UDS MÍNIMO
JAKE THE SNAKE sabe venir desde atrás, sólo forma, 1 pt, necesitas mucho ritmo
ResponderEliminarKATMAI RIVER carrera bastante lenta y aguanta muy bien sólo superado finales 50 yds.
ResponderEliminarFINE RULER hampered pero se sobrepone sólo 1 ud y viene desde atrás
TIRADITO el mejor de los held up en carrera lenta, tiene que llegar la victoria ya!!!
ResponderEliminarveroon si no gasta tanto viajando abierto e incómodo se la lleva 1 pt de todos modos
ResponderEliminarno trimmings eyecatcher hace 2 salidas y muy mala monta en la última (donde partió 5/1). merece una 2ª oportunidad
ResponderEliminarbookiesindexboy
ResponderEliminarviaja como el mejor, pero no encuentra el cambio de ritmo. le pasa a menudo, y, por lo tanto, ojo. necesita una buena monta: Craine, Spencer...
Waveband
ResponderEliminarwas sent off favourite on the back of chasing home a horse who had followed up in a higher grade next time out. She did nothing wrong being fast away and running right the way to the line, but just bumped into a well-treated rival. Compensation shouldn´t be far away.
arganil
ResponderEliminarsólo all-weather y 5f 2 uds al menos
charles parnell
ResponderEliminarviaja bien y avanza, en southwell, en la recta de meta a tres rivales, necesita una monta más agresiva. No!!!!! Nora Lobby 1 ud
serious drinking
ResponderEliminarSerious Drinking caught the eye as she was slowly away and, in the process of allowing her to drop in, her rider let the field gain a few lengths on her. Travelling okay coming down the hill, she had plenty to do turning in, and in the circumstances she did well to take third. She looks to be on a winning mark.
HARLECH CASTLE mejor en inside rail, es mejor en southwell
ResponderEliminarMASHDOOD Gana bien desde delante en Lingfield
Moremaloke
gana con mucho bajo la mano
SIR WILLIAM ORPEN especulativo, inside rail, el mejor, hay que ver la cuota
HAZZARD COUNTY, raised 8lb for winning over 7f at Kempton, is the type that needs things to fall right for him and was given an excellent ride by Laura Pike, even in defeat. This course probably doesn´t suit his hold-up style of racing despite the fact that he has a sound record at Lingfield, so a return to Kempton or a visit to Wolverhampton would make him even more interesting next time.
MUQALAD taylor, depende del precio.
Muqalad was supported but was again soundly beaten after racing with the choke out. He´s not fully exposed but needs to show a bit more before he´s a solid betting proposition.
DESERT ICON
Desert Icon pulled much too hard under restraint and was short of room on the first bend. Unsurprisingly, he found nothing for pressure. UNA OPORTUNIDAD MÁS SI HAY BUENA CUOTA. CAMBIO DE JOCKEY NO ESTARÍA MAL.
CONVINCE 2/3 UDS
ResponderEliminarAlthough Convince finished out of the frame the circumstance behind the loss after being hampered at the start compounded the bad draw. Convince came from last turning for home and was flying at the finish which is no mean feat at Southwell.
If you haven't seen the race it is well worth a watch as THIS IS a winner waiting to happen albeit at a shorter price than 12-1. CLICK HERE
SCAMPERDALE: TAYLOR 3 PTS, EN BUENA FORMA
ResponderEliminarDVINSKY EN BUENA FORMA VIAJA ABIERTO EN CUARTA FILA EL MEJOR DE LOS FRONT RUNNERS POR UN CUERPO, GANARÁ ALGÚN HANDICAP SOBRETODO SI TIENE BUEN CAJÓN
HAVING A BALL
FASTINTHESTRAIGHT had shown little on his five previous starts, but Jim Boyle said afterwards the gelding didn´t face the kickback at Wolverhampton when fancied by connections last time. He was well backed, despite being 2lb wrong (out the handicap and carried overweight), and was keen to post and in the race itself, but he still picked up really well from off a slow pace. According to the trainer, the horse has been lame on occasions in the past, but it´s clear he´s much better than an official rating of 45 indicates and can do even better off a stronger gallop.
SCREAMING BRAVE, dropped in trip, raced well out the back and had little chance considering how wide he was asked to go, especially into the straight, but he stayed on well. He can do better off a stronger gallop and/or back over further.
fiancee con blinker y a e/w viene corriendo muy bien en las 2 últimas sobre polytrack 1 ud
ResponderEliminarSugar Beet, making her debut for Ron Harris, ranwith credit keeping on up the inside rail to just be beaten for second. She is entitled to come on for this considering she had been off the track for 132 days, and is the type her trainer does well with. mejor de los hold-up y 3 yo nacido en mayo
west leake sólo si rápida 1 ud
BUBBLY BREEZE showed distinct signs of promise despite the distance he was beaten on his debut for his current yard at Newcastle last time and looks worth supporting in the modest-looking 3m handicap that opens the card there today (1.20). He didn't show much in four starts for Howard Johnson, but remains likely to be suited by a test of stamina. He's a full brother to out-and-out stayers Idle Talk, who has run in three Grand Nationals and three Scottish Nationals, and Belon Gale, last seen winning over 4m on heavy ground at Hexham in November. With that in mind, it's extremely encouraging that he travelled so well for a long way on that debut run for Pauline Robson, which was his first outing for almost nine months; he raced keenly during the early stages, as is often the case with horses returning from a long break, but he looked a big player approaching the home turn, and was very considerately handled in the home straight, his rider immediately accepting matters as soon as he fell a few lengths behind the leaders, nudged out with hands and heels for most of the straight.
ResponderEliminarThe fact that connections are stepping him up from 2m6f to 3m here seems to give credence to the theory, clearly backed up by his pedigree, that it was lack of peak fitness, rather than any stamina failings, that led to his running out of steam in the straight that day. The stable had its first winner for a while (albeit from very few runners) on Monday.
At Lingfield (4.40), CUT AND THRUST hasn't won for a very long time, but he should still go well with the headgear refitted after running creditably in a race that is working out extremely well last time. The winner of that contest, Advertisement, will be a short price in his engagement at Kempton today, but several behind him that day have already franked the form - runner-up Lockantanks and eighth Lastkingofscotland have both won in good style since, whilst sixth-placed Buxton went very close at Wolverhampton next time. Clearly his recent win record is offputting, but with cheekpieces back on and off his lowest mark for a long time, today might be the day he bounces back.
James Ewart had a winner earlier this week with a horse (Quicoyo) who was returning to his favoured track (Ayr) after fading in the closing stages on his previous start. It could be a similar story with RAINING HORSE (Newcastle 3.50), whose course form reads 1611F, with his two efforts over fences both producing wide-margin wins. He went well enough for a long way on his reappearance at Ayr to suggest he retains his ability, and has been helpfully dropped 6lb for that effort, so should have good prospects back at a track that clearly suits him well.
wild ground viaja bien y pu. regresa de dos años inactivo con ayuda del handicapper. ¿necesitaba la salida?
ResponderEliminarattrition interesante si southwell y más de 5 f por dios
MR GARDNER TAYLOR 3 PTS 3RD AFETR BLUNDERED 2ND LAST
ResponderEliminarproduced one of the most impressive chasing debuts I've seen in recent years when routing a small field at Huntingdon on his return from a long absence last month, and although there has to be some element of risk that he won't reproduce that form three weeks later having been off for so long prior to his return, he's very attractively priced in the Grade One Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown today (2.25). He's a hard horse to assess, partly because at the age of 8 he has been seen only four times, but the two wide-margin wins he has produced have both suggested he might be something very special if he can be kept sound.
On his final start in 2009, he won a fast-ground Newbury novice hurdle by a distance, a rare feat at that track on that type of ground, effortlessly stretching away from Fistral Beach; although the latter wasn't the smart horse then that he is now over fences, he was nonetheless a 127-rated hurdler at the time, albeit one who was proving expensive to follow, and Mr Gardner looked in a totally different league to him. That was also the impression gained when Mr Gardner sauntered away from his three rivals on his comeback/chase debut at Huntingdon; he attacked his fences, pricking his ears when he saw the next one and seeming to relish his job. The bare form is hard to assess, as his only serious rival Patsy Finnegan was also returning from a long lay-off, but the time looks very good considering the conditions, not only because he was around ten seconds quicker than the handicap chase run earlier on the card over the same distance (that was a low-grade race), but more because he returned a time that was very quick compared to C & D races run on similar ground in recent years despite the fact that his rider was sitting still all the way up the home straight and eased him heavily after the last. The big doubt is whether he can produce that level of form again when not fresh - he did flop at Sandown on his second career start, the only time he hasn't been fresh - but I definitely think that's a chance worth taking here; if he jumps like he did at Huntingdon, he will have plenty of today's rivals in trouble at a track that places such a premium on quick, accurate jumping. As an aside, the "bounce" is an often-discussed issue surrounding horses making their second start back from a long absence; I need to research this with a much bigger sample size, but a quick check this morning shows that since 1 Jan 2009 the record of NH horses who won last time after an absence of a year or more, then returned within 30 days and started at single-figure odds is 17-58, with a small profit of 4.57 points, which if replicated over a larger sample (I'll check when I have more time) would suggest the bounce might not be as commonplace as many suggest.
This is a very competitive race on paper, but I don't think any of those at the front of the market are unbeatable. It's still early days for Medermit over fences but he doesn't give the impression he's going to be a star in this sphere, Captain Chris will definitely be suited by the switch to a right-handed track and probably by the step up in trip too, but he was comprehensively beaten by Ghizao on both his starts over fences and struggled to get past Nicky Henderson's Surfing (who was beaten at 4-11 in a Chepstow novice chase yesterday) at Newbury last time. Henderson also saddles Nadiya De La Vega in this race, and she's the stable first string according to the betting, but whilst she definitely has a chance, she didn't create quite the same impression on her recent win as Mr Gardner.